Preston Beckman Knows What He's Doing aka Obligatory FOX Midseason Schedule Analysis Post

C'mon guys, seriously. Is there really *that* much to discuss here and/or gape about?

I love Fringe. Especially this season. But I watch it on Fridays now, anyway. So I'm totally cool with the move to Fridays at 9pm. Taking the Fan Hat off, what does this practically mean? First of all, of course, expect some ratings slippage. But honestly at this point, I don't think there will be a ton (certainly not the ~50% drop that some of my Twitter followers have predicted). The competition isn't there for that. Fringe isn't a casual viewer show. It's viewers seek it out and will continue to do so. Putting it on a night with significantly less competition should help with the Same Day ratings because there will be far less waiting for tomorrow for DVR playback. Fringe does fantastically in Plus Seven DVR increase percentages.

Regardless of how little that figure means to advertisers, here's an instance I think it will actually work to the show's advantage. A portion of those +7 DVR viewers could become Same Day DVR viewers (again, I am one of those, not that I have a Nielsen box for anyone to notice). Even if it's just a couple tenths, that will be enough to counteract any loss the show experiences moving away from the Bones lead-in (the two shows really don't have a lot of crossover audience... Bones is a much older skewing show). Not that I expect Kitchen Nightmares to be a huge lead-in, the Gordon Ramsey shows attract, like Fringe, relatively small viewer numbers when compared to the demo. This could all work to Fringe's advantage. Plus, expectations on Friday are different. The biggest show last week attracted a 1.9 in the demo. Compare that to Fringe's current competition: Grey's around a 4.0, CSI in the low-to-mid 3s, and The Office/Outsourced also in the low-to-mid 3s. Yes, there's less HUTs on Friday nights... but I think it all counterbalances itself nicely to a place where Fringe can be both stable and successful (and depending on budget talks, survive for more seasons).

And between Fringe and Supernatural (sadly, competing against each other), SciFridays are, this Winter/Spring, truly alive and well. Even if SyFy has abandoned the night to the WWE.

As I've stated on Twitter, I find two primary motives for the Idol move to Wednesdays and Thursdays.

The first: protect Glee by letting it remain in a timeslot. Stability is huge in this business, and viewers have clearly found Glee on Tuesdays at 8pm. While I continue to believe that Glee needs fixing, there's no denying the empirical data: it kicks its competition's butt in major sales demographics. Glee and Tuesdays are perfect for each other (as it's music release day).

The second: establish a year-round reality competition wheel. Winter/Spring has Idol. Summer has So You Think You Can Dance (which has traditionally aired Wednesdays and Thursdays, anyway). Fall will have X-Factor. Guess what else this means? More stability. No longer will Fox have to rejigger its schedule every 4 months (i.e. Glee Wednesdays at 9... now Tuesdays at 9... now Tuesdays at 8! Or like House used to be on Tuesdays at 8pm in the Fall then Mondays in the Winter/Spring). Reality competition shows will just give way to each other. Stability.

Okay, three reasons: Thursday ad dollars command a premium. As Idol's ratings slip (and they will continue to do so), FOX can keep charging advertisers exorbitant sums because, hey, it's a major, broad audience pre-weekend platform for advertisements.

A nice side benefit: Bones gets the Idol lead-in it has long deserved but not had since its first season. I'm loving the show, and with Idol leading into it (plus the 9pm hour having higher HUTs, and the show's gore factor lending itself to the 9pm hour more than 8pm anyway), I'm thinking Bones will get a nice boost.

I don't think there's much else to say, as these two are the major moves. We already knew about Lie to Me and Human Target's truncated seasons (and neither has performed at a level that demands renewal... with more stability, Fox will feel free to let both these shows go away, or perhaps ship one to Fridays with Friday in Fall 2011). We already knew about The Chicago Code. House is of course staying put. Raising Hope is doing decent business out of Glee (it's always hard to attract the passionate fanbase of a pop cultural phenomenon to a lead-out... cough, Lost for 6 years, cough) and, like my assertion with Cougar Town benefiting from Off the Map, I think having a lead-out will help... so Raising Hope may improve if Mixed Signals is simply not as big a turnoff as Running Wilde was.

I have no opinion about the Sunday changes except my personal sadness that American Dad, easily the best of Seth MacFarlane's shows, is being relegated to 7:30pm. It is the worst rated, and it's already in syndication, so I get it. And if Bob's Burgers fails, it'll slide nicely in between The Simpsons and Family Guy.

Obligatory NBC Midseason Schedule Analysis Post

It's like playing musical chairs on the siesta deck of the Titanic.

NBC's problems are not going to be fixed wholesale by yesterday's midseason schedule announcement. Not when the highest rated drama on the network (which, to be clear, is the highest rated out of 7) is pulling mid-to-low 2s (which, yes, CW would still be popping champagne over). That drama, Law & Order: SVU, will likely see some real gains when it - once again - moves back to a 10pm timeslot. I understood the decision to have it at 9pm as a lead-in to LOLA, at least in theory. But to put the show back in the timeslot it was getting slaughtered in last year during the Jay Leno fiasco was foolish, don't you think? Not to hit the same nail on the head over and over again, but "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results." I have no idea if NBC expected different results in moving SVU to Wednesdays at 9pm once again. But it didn't get them (what it got was a weakened lead-in into a spin-off that is still unproven and will need to stand on its own stocky legs now). Time to get out of dodge.

Chuck remains at 8pm. I watch Chuck. There are times that I love Chuck. I don't think the show has been fantastic this season (though it has gotten much better the last couple weeks), but then again I also didn't think last season was as good as the second. The second season was awesome. From a ratings standpoint, Chuck gets the crap beaten out of it by the punditry. Because a 1.9 (±0.2) for every episode in Live plus Same Day ratings? Not great. But a consistent show that isn't bleeding viewers or demo... it's gonna stick around. So, sorry haters. It's low rated, but because of NBC's state of affairs... it's not the biggest fish to fry.

The Cape... I haven't seen it. I loved the script. It reminded me of a Saturday morning cartoon in wonderful ways. But I've heard that the final product came out, um, taking itself very seriously. This could be the campiest camp that ever camped, in that case. Not expecting huge things from it, but it gives The Event a break... and when the Event comes back, it'll be to finish out its run and not return for a second season (last night it was below Chuck's A18-49 rating... NBC ought to be able to do better).

Parenthood at 10pm on Mondays is a headscratcher. It's been doing solid if unspectacular business on Tuesdays at 10pm. And there isn't going to be enough of a break between Tuesday episodes in January and Monday episodes in March to really consider it a big relaunch. I don't see The Event as having the same audience profile as Parenthood (while I did see PH having a similar audience as The Biggest Loser). Parenthood, though, has a solid audience at this point and will certainly build on Chase's spectacularly awful ratings... but will still place third to Castle and Hawaii Five-0 (whereas in the coming weeks, it may edge out The Good Wife for 2nd on Tuesdays at 10pm... it's been within a tenth).

I've nothing to say about Harry's Law because it's been so heavily rewritten from the pilot I read, which I had no intention of ever laying eyes on. I can't even lay a guess as how spectacularly this ought to flop.

The Biggest Loser stays, and stays at a plumped up 2 hours. I haven't watched this season, and apparently a big chunk of America's who used to watch the show opted out this year. Perhaps it was casting? Format changes? Will the audience return or have people given up on the show (America's Next Top Model suffered a similar bleed out beginning around Cycle 9 or 10).

Regardless, L&O: SVU used to do decently (more viewers but less demo) on Tuesdays at 10pm out of (a much stronger) BL. We'll see about LOLA. If it continues to pull its current Wednesday numbers that'd be about what Parenthood was doing.

Wednesday night is a night of big changes, isn't it? Minute To Win It returns to Wednesdays at 8pm, where it was pulling mid-to-high 1s last season. Better than Undercovers is doing. But it's a bandage.

Chase at 9pm on Wednesdays... it's there for no reason other than NBC picked up a full season for some reason. I don't get it. It won't be doing better at 9pm because of higher HUTs. It won't have a bigger lead-in (though perhaps a more casual TV viewer lead-in that watches live instead of on DVR). And it'll face a strong Criminal Minds, which is wiping the floor with signature drama L&O: SVU. And Modern Family (I say CM first because I see more audience similarities between Chase and SM). And Idol (weakened as it may be). Chase is being thrown to the wolves here.

And that's okay. Because SVU at 10pm can stand on its own. Unless Off the Map does extremely well (I expect it to perform admirably, certainly better than The Whole Truth, but not spectacularly... leveling off in the high 2s) and CBS keeps The Defenders at 10pm (I'm seeing a Friday 8pm timeslot for Jim and Jerry and the CM spin-off here, though, when CBS announces its changes), SVU should win the timeslot. And the affiliates breathed a sigh of relief.

Thursdays. Oy. What have we here. NBC has a problem, at least from my DVR's POV, on Thursdays. Love Community. No intention of watching Perfect Couples (the pilot I saw was awful). Have stopped watching The Office, but can't wait for more Parks & Recreation (though I must say, from a scheduler standpoint, WHAT TOOK NBC SO LONG to put P&R after The Office? Expect series high numbers and better retention from The Office than Outsourced has). Back in love with 30 Rock this season (after a subpar season 4), but couldn't be bothered with Outsourced. What does all of this mean, at least for my habits? Hulu! Sorry, I'd rather record a full hour of TV that I'm gonna watch than a half-hour and try to watch an hour-long show online the next day. 30 Rock will get recorded, though, since I don't have 10pm conflicts.

What do I think of a six-comedy block on Thursday? I like the idea. And, really, 30 Rock/Outsourced has to do better than The Apprentice... right? Against stiffer competition, 30 Rock is doing mid-2s at 8:30pm. It could actually improve on that at 10pm, with a stronger lead-in (again, I expect an Office-fueled Parks & Recreation to pull better numbers than Community is right now). If it gets to be "edgier" now that it's at 10pm... I'm game. I don't think audiences care about comedy being at 10pm (South Park, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia). It's a remnant of a pre-DVR age that the networks don't program comedy at 10pm. The thing NBC has to be careful with, though, is the 10:30pm show. It has to lead into local affiliates' 11pm news. It's a risk that people will just... leave at 10:30pm. But, again, compared to the current The Apprentice numbers, Outsourced will be an improvement and, for the short-term, that's all that matters. The six-comedy is an experiment and we'll see how it goes. NBC will be able to make an informed decision for next fall on whether to keep it or not. This is also why Community is staying at 8pm against The Big Bang Theory. Sure, it's getting beaten. But NBC could do a lot worse (and Community has critical if not awards press... something NBC does care about with its comedies).

I have absolutely nothing to say about NBC Fridays or Sundays. Nothing.

So, overall? A stop-gap (NBC hopes). Nothing more. Nothing less.