Cupid Finals Update

I'm not gonna go all long-winded for this update. Just numbers. See Spinning Cupid: A Case For Renewal for the prelims.

Overall numbers (will report viewers for DWTS/CUPID since I did in the prelims)

DWTS (62 minutes)

- 13.513 million viewers (+0.508 vs prelims)

- 3.1/8 A18-49 (+0.2/1 vs prelims)

CUPID (58 minutes)

- 7.217 million viewers (-0.347 vs prelims, 53.4% retention)

- 2.3/6 (no change vs prelims, 74.2% retention)

Half-hours...

DWTS 9:30

- 15.517 million viewers (+0.391)

- 3.6/9 A18-49 (+0.1/1)

CUPID 10:02

- 8.081 million viewers (-0.562, 52.1% retention)

- 2.5/7 A18-49 (no change, 69.4% retention)

CUPID 10:30

- 6.410 million viewers (-0.075, 79.3% retention)

- 2.1/6 A18-49 (no change, 84.0% retention)

Very unusual for CUPID to not lose any demo once the overrun was taken out. Now, looking at the same shows I looked at in prelims...

March 9 (CASTLE premiere)

DWTS (8-10:02pm)

- 6.1/15 A18-49 (+0.2/0)

CASTLE (10:02pm)

- 3.0/8 A18-49 (-0.3/-1, 49.2% retention)

DWTS 9:30

- 6.8/16 A18-49 (+0.1/0)

CASTLE 10:02

- 3.3/8 A18-49 (-0.4/-1, 48.5% retention)

CASTLE 10:30

- 2.8/7 A18-49 (-0.1/-1, 84.8% retention)

March 30 (most recent CASTLE)

DWTS (8-10:02pm)

- 4.9/12 A18-49 (+0.1/0)

CASTLE (10:02pm)

- 2.4/6 A18-49 (-0.1/-1, 49.0% retention)

DWTS 9:30

- 5.5/13 A18-49 (+0.1/0)

CASTLE 10:02

- 2.7/7 A18-49 (-0.3/-1, 49.1% retention)

CASTLE 10:30

- 2.1/6 A18-49 (no change, 77.8% retention)

March 25 (most recent LIFE ON MARS)

LOST 9:30

- 4.0/10 A18-49 (0/+1)

LIFE ON MARS 10:02

- 2.1/6 A18-49 (-0.2/0, 52.5% retention)

LIFE ON MARS 10:30

- 1.9/5 A18-49 (0/-1, 90.5% retention)

March 26 (most recent PRIVATE PRACTICE)

GREY'S ANATOMY 9:30

- 6.0/14 A18-49 (+0.2/0)

PRIVATE PRACTICE 10:02

- 3.9/10 A18-49 (-0.2/0, 65.0% retention)

PRIVATE PRACTICE 10:30

- 3.5/9 A18-49 (no change, 89.7% retention)

March 22 (most recent BROTHERS & SISTERS)

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES 9:30

- 4.9/12 A18-49 (no change)

BROTHERS & SISTERS 10:01

- 3.5/9 A18-49 (-0.2/0, 71.4% retention)

BROTHERS & SISTERS 10:30

- 3.3/9 A18-49 (no change, 94.2% retention)

November 18, 2008 (most recent ELI STONE after DWTS)

DWTS 9:30

- 4.1/10 A18-49 (no change)

ELI STONE 10:02

- 1.9/5 A18-49 (-0.2/0, 46.3% retention)

ELI STONE 10:30

- 1.4/4 A18-49 (no change, 73.7% retention)

The finals support my conclusions from the prelims. The key difference between success and failure of all these shows is the percent of demo drop at 10:02pm (10:01pm in B&S's case) from the lead-in's 9:30pm demo. In that department, CUPID is poised for "success" (though with the low overall numbers, there's no guarantee) as it has the 2nd best post-overrun retention (behind BROTHERS & SISTERS and ahead of PRIVATE PRACTICE).

Ultimately, nothing is more important in determining CUPID's chances for renewal than next week's (and the following week's) numbers.